Political Fix (19 September, 2019)

Who will ValleyCrats vote for?

The pool of Democratic presidential candidates is among the largest and most diverse in the history of primaries in the United States and this time California actually has a say who that nominee might be.

Do you know who you are going to vote for on March 3?

Though the number of candidates has gone down from 27, there are still 20 Democratic candidates from which to choose, though only 10 of those qualified to participate in the Houston debate last week.

For the Republicans, the GOP may not even hold a California primary. State GOP committees in Kansas, South Carolina, Nevada and Arizona announced that they’re not holding a presidential primary in 2020, falling in line behind President Donald Trump. Besides this, the California legislature passed a dubiously legal requirement for all presidential candidates to provide tax returns if they want to be on the ballot.

As for the Democrats, California will divvy up 495 delegates in March to send to the Democratic Convention in Wisconsin next July.

The top five candidates right now, according to a mash-up of national polls, are Joseph Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg.

Because Ms. Harris is in the top five nationally, and is a California senator who beat a fellow Democrat in the 2018 election by 23 points, our native daughter should be a front-runner with local voters also, right?

But out of the 40 Democrats I surveyed, only 3 considered Ms. Harris their first choice. Ms. Harris has had some breakout moments but has not been able to maintain the sizzle.

National polls put the top 11 candidates in this order: Biden 26.2%, Warren 17%, Sanders 16.8%, Harris 6.2%, Buttigieg 5%, O’Rourke 3%, Yang 3%, Booker 2.6%, Klobuchar 1.2%, Gabbard 1.2%, Castro 1.2%.

Most notable of this group is Andrew Yang, who is outpolling three sitting senators and is in the top 10 nationally.

Who comes in first in my survey?

Of my mostly South Valley respondents the overwhelming winner was Senator Elizabeth Warren. When respondents gave a second choice, Ms. Warren got six more votes.

My results in order of the number of votes were:

Warren 13,  Sanders 7, Biden 6, Harris 3, Buttigieg 2, Gabbard 2, Booker 1, Yang 0, and Undecided (to the point they couldn’t even give me their top three candidates) was 4.

One smart aleck (Matt Darby) said his choice was Brian Carroll who ran against Rep. Devin Nunes in 2016. When I said I am talking about the Presidential Primary he said, “I know.”

Most people did complain that the primary was too far out to decide, but there have been 21 hours of debates to winnow down your choice. One respondent just said, “Truthfully, I’m not thrilled with any of them.”

One respondent made a point of saying that she was a former Republican. “My top choices probably won’t make it to the March primaries. I like Pete B. and Mike Bennett and Amy Klobuchar, would be good vice presidential choice and, as a pundit wrote, Buttigieg needs to be in a cabinet position no matter who is elected.”

When looking at my survey numbers more closely, Mr. Biden was no respondent’s second choice and only three women voted for him. Conversely, the majority of Ms. Warren’s votes came from women.

Why is this important? Women generally turn out to vote at higher rates than men.

Andrew Yang got a couple of third place votes and Amy Klobuchar and Beto O’Rourke got one second place vote each. Gabbard, who got two votes, did not qualify for the Houston debate but might qualify for the next one on October 15 in Ohio and is one of the most searched candidates online.

Do ValleyCrats reflect the rest of California voters or are they outliers? In the 2016 presidential primary between Bernie Sanders and Hilary Clinton they did reflect the rest of the state.

In Fresno, Kern, Kings, and Tulare Counties a spread of 10 – 14 points separated Ms. Clinton and Mr. Sanders, which was the same throughout the state in counties that voted for Ms. Clinton, which were most of them.

For many respondents it boiled down to who can beat Mr. Trump and many said they would support anyone who won the primary.

Some of the comments about my survey  included, “It’s still very early in the race, and I want to see how things play out as we get closer to the primaries. I don’t think Joe Biden or Bernie Sanders are what we need to follow Trump, and repair all the damage he’s done.”

Another respondent said, “I wish Joe Biden was a little more on his game because I do believe he has the best chance to win.”

A Fresno State English professor stated, “She (Warren) grew up with people who are drawn to anti-government impulses, like Trump fans, and I think, despite often disagreeing with their stances, she respects them in a way not all the candidates do. We need someone who will listen to everyone and make thoughtful, ethical choices. She has good people working with her who are developing good ideas for just about every challenge we face. I’m not sure the medicare for all will fly, but I think that will get worked out as a likely compromise legislatively. What I do like is her determination behind that to get everyone access to decent healthcare.

“Mostly, I want us all to pay attention, read, talk with each other and think critically about the candidates and the issues, and vote. I want every single eligible voter to vote. That’s democracy!”

A Gen Z respondent said, “Warren is running a straight-forward campaign with all her cards out on the table. She’s not holding anything back and I’m ready to help elect the first female President of the United States of America.”

Another Gen Z respondent ended her comments by saying, “But, I am super pissed off at the lack of centrist options that do not have possibly corrupt donors.”

During a rally in Washington Square Park in New York City last week an estimated 20,000 supporters showed up, one of the larger crowds of this campaign season. As is her custom, Ms. Warren stayed after her speech to take pictures with anyone who wanted one. That alone might win over me. I’m a little tired of being ignored.

When Massachusetts Congress Member Seth Moulton dropped out of the presidential race he said, “I think it’s evident that this is now a three-way race between Biden, Warren and Sanders, and really it’s a debate about how far left the party should go.”

Mr. Biden is not exactly a leftist. And when you consider most of the services we take for granted are provided by the federal or state government, I’m not quite sure what pundits mean when they call Elizabeth Warren a socialist. She is for Medicare for all but so is every industrialized country in the world.

In my next Political Fix I will be asking Republicans who they want to have win the Democratic Primary. I have a hunch they are going to say Ms. Warren because she has been branded a socialist. Democrats all prayed that Mr. Trump would win the Republican Primary in 2016 and he did.

My advice to Republicans – be careful what you wish for.

13 thoughts on “Political Fix (19 September, 2019)

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  1. I must have been one of the three who only put forth the name of Joe Biden. My bad! So I’m going to amend my comment. I do like Elizabeth Warren a lot I just wished she wasn’t so far to the left, too far in some things in my opinion. She is extremely qualified intellectually to hold the office of the presidency, probably even more than Biden, and she has extremely good instincts. She listens……I like that, however she skirts around on how she plans to pay for student loan forgiveness, Medicare for all, and all her other plans. I just wished she would come out and say “by raising your taxes” right along with the 1% high earners. Everyone knows that you don’t get something for nothing and I’m okay with that as I have always paid my way. I also like Pete Buttigieg. He is smart, honest, thoughtful, and practical. He has a lot of good ideas. I think he would make a good V.P. for either Biden or Warren. I am at this time pulling for Joe Biden as he not only has the experience from being a Vice President in the recent past but he also has such an enriched longevity in serving as a Senator and in holding a leadership role in the Senate throughout his career. He knows how to govern and we need someone who knows how to govern, to actively reach out in a bipartisan way, to bring dignity back to the White House, to put country over party. He is real, warm, truthful, has respect for his fellow man and he is someone who we the people can easily respect . He is not narcissistic, he is not a habitual liar, nor is he morally corrupted. Joe Biden follows the JFK rule “ASK NOT WHAT YOUR COUNTRY CAN DO FOR YOU BUT ASK WHAT YOU CAN DO FOR YOUR COUNTRY”. United we stand, divided we fall……..country first!

  2. Many of these candidates come across as being almost as delusional as Trump. Now that the economic sugar high of one-time repatriation of corporate earnings has worn off, we have averaged 2.1 GDP growth for the last 3 quarters and we have a $1 trillion fiscal deficit. Any sharp increases in taxation will put the economy in a recession if it is not already in recession by November 2020. The best thing the next President can do on healthcare is to fix the damage to Obamacare and then to start the hard work of legislating to contain cost increases.
    The best thing Californians can do is to continue replacing bad Representatives like Devin Nunes and Kevin McCarthy and Tom McClintock and Jim Costa who stand around playing pocket pool while Trump spends money like a drunken sailor and attacks the State of California.

  3. None of the Dem candidates excited me. None has presented a comprehensive, or even, non-comprehensive, vision for America that can inspire. At best, just piles of deadly boring, barely distinguishable policy proposals is all you have getting each of them.

    That’s not what wins elections.

    With luck, the eventual nominee is still lurking somewhere.

  4. I think it’s hysterical that you can’t admit that the Democratic president hopefuls that are in this race ALL act like they smoke crack. Every single one of them. Lol

    • You obviously are perfectly fine with a President who is narcissistic, misogynistic, a racist, a habitual liar, and who is morally corrupt. What is hysterical is that you actually believe that you have the moral high ground over anyone who doesn’t support your belief that the end justifies the means, that this president is to be allowed to say or do anything that he chooses because hells-bells all you stupid little people he after all is the President! Talk about someone smoking something…..YOU must be smoking pure crap and loving it! lol

      • How do I come across as thinking I have the moral high ground? By stating what’s obvious? YOU are the one assuming to know what Trump is, I hope you’re certified to make such a diagnosis of Trump being a narcissist, ( even if you were , you can’t possibly have done the test needed to make such a claim) regardless, I might agree with you on that one , but I would bet the majority of past Presidents fall well within the Narcisstic spectrum ( it takes a special kind of narcissism to be the potus.) As far as the rest of your list of Trumps virtues , your just mocking the news you fill yourself with and it’s not in the least reliable, lol racist?give me a break. Go ahead a vote for one of the train wrecks that the Democrats have scrounged up, Trump is going to win again. One of the things I look forward to when that happens is reading the Valley Voice have it’s melt downs…

        • You are just one more “I see nothing, I know nothing, and I won’t say nothing” Trump Republican. However if you are truly deaf, blind and brain damaged please accept my apology. BTW Trump himself has validated my opinions of him being a narcissist, misogynistic, a racist, a habitual liar, and someone who is morally corrupt. Funny how you would probably have no problem in recognizing these same traits in a Democrat or another Republican who does not support Trump but not in a Trump Republican or the Trumpster himself. How so very sad that you set your standards so low that someone like Trump becomes perfectly acceptable.

          • Barbara, as an American in his early 30’s it is very difficult to take your comments seriously. The hypocrisy is simply hysterical. You’re the epitome of what I see is wrong with our society. Is this not your comment from above? “United we stand, divided we fall…country first!” You also state, “You actually believe that you have the moral high ground over anyone who doesn’t support your belief.” Yet, you preach unity! You are the first one to slam Trump, Nunes, Republicans, and anyone, including myself, with a differing opinions. You constantly are criticizing those who do not support YOUR beliefs. I will refrain from what you have called the President and Nunes. Readers can look that up within this page to see your disrespect. Please explain where is your moral high ground? You are the definition of divisiveness. Go reread your comment to Kelley. You call that being united? Try starting with yourself, since you are an elder Tularean, self-proclaim wise one, and a leader of this so called democratic movement of unity you preach. PLEASE SHOW ME THIS GREAT MORAL CHARACTER OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY YOU SPEAK OF! Because I sure in the hell do not see it in you. I will sum it up in one comment, and provide you more insight than Joseph has provided in all his opinion pieces combined………Ready? All politicians are sleaze bags, and I cringe at the crap my generation and those younger will be left with, because your generation is pathetically antagonistic.

  5. I’ve tried to watch the democrat debate but just find them so tiresome. As a republican, I must say I’m thrilled with the field, though. A more crazy basket of craziness, I’ve never seen. When Crazy Joe comes out as the most ‘normal’ of the lot, Dims are in a lot of trouble. Beto has now been ostracized speaking truth. His statement of “Yes, I will confiscate your guns” has them in a tizzy. Wow, a Dim who finally spoke the truth about the second amendment. Refreshing.

  6. FCC I certainly hope your generation and those younger will be left with a far better world than what we have now. You are correct…..I gave Kelly as much respect as her original comment deserved, which was none. I fully admit that I don’t have much patience for Trump supporters and their anal thinking and postings and I fully admit that I am most certainly NOT practicing what I preach. That’s on me, my bad. I do not apologize for what I think other than perhaps I could have found a more “polite” was of saying it. As for your personal opinion about me, frankly my dear FCC I personally don’t give a damn.

    • I appreciate your ownership. Also please note, I do not have a personal opinion of you. Why would I? That is a little self flattering or egotistical on your part to think I do. I also would not expect anything less in your reponse. Giving a damn about me and my opinion was never expected. Your consistent at least. I just call out hypocracy as I see it. You want to preach, practice what you preach. Moral compass can be challenged among all politicians on both sides of the aisle. Please remember that. I do not want you to become a captious individual. I found this article you may want to read today: search – 2020 ELECTIONS per CNBC
      “Wall Street Democratic donors warn the party: We’ll sit out, or back Trump, if you nominate Elizabeth Warren!” I find a little Quid pro quo in that strategy? Yet, Dems are free of corruptions?! I will conclude there. Have to go back to work to pay all these state taxes and line the pockets of the super majority legislature, who by the way do not give a damn about me either.

      • No personal opinion of me! 🙂 You opined so ardently that I am a hypocrite, have no moral character, am pathetically antagonistic, and my generation epitomizes all that is wrong with society. Any yet you don’t have a “personal opinion of me”. Lol, lol, lol, lol! I haven’t laughed so long and so hard in days. 🙂 Thanks FCC. God Bless You!

  7. Ha – you mistake a blurt for an muse thought. My opine would have far more acuity and insight. However, I will say – nice affirmation of your parties discord and internal strife. Rather than dodge, you should share those nuggets of intellectual defense on the matter, since you have been a firm critic of the moral equitity of Nunes and Trump but not Warren or Biden. Also it sure does appear you do give a damn what I think, blurt or opine! Now that is funny!

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