Republican Prognosticator Predicts a Trump Win

Republican pundit and political animal Cheyne Strawn of Tulare released his election predictions today on the eve of the Presidential election. Though some predictions match those of the Valley Voice‘s Political Fix column, he gives a “young guns Republican” view of what is in store for the nation and Tulare County on Tuesday.

His most daring prediction is with the presidential race. While Political Fix wrote that Hilary Clinton should start measuring for new drapes, Strawn is predicting that Donald Trump will eke out a win with exactly 270 electoral votes.

Strawn maps a path to victory for Trump by winning swing states New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio and the one congressional district in Maine. He also predicts that Trump will win Nevada, Florida and all of the Southern States except Virginia. Strawn predicted that Trump will lose swing states New Mexico and Colorado.

In terms of Congress, Strawn predicted that the House and Senate would keep their Republican majority.  He predicted that the Senate would end Tuesday evening with 49 Democratic and 51 Republican held seats.

California Congressional District 21 candidate Emilio Huerta is seen by some, said Strawn, as a rising star, but not high enough to catch incumbent David Valadao. He doesn’t see Huerta as having the chops of former candidate Amanda Renteria, who lost by 16 points. But he does believe that this is the year of the Latino and that Huerta might get a boost. Strawn’s predicts Valadao to win by 15 or less points.

“Don’t count Huerta out,” said Strawn, who thinks that Huerta has a fighting chance to beat State Senator Andy Vidak in 2018 if he so chooses to run.

For Congressional District 22, Strawn predicts that incumbent Devin Nunes will win his usual 63% of the vote.

Democrats might win a supermajority in the California State Assembly and Senate. According to Strawn, the California State Senate only has to lose one seat to the Democrats and two seats in the Assembly to gain a supermajority. He predicts that both houses will have a Democratic supermajority after Tuesday’s election.

Strawn has witnessed Tulare County Supervisor candidate for District 1 Dennis Smith out campaigning and said that he has run a successful grassroots campaign. Smith will also be receiving the Tea Party vote. Strawn predicts an easy win for Smith over Strathmore resident Kuyler Crocker.

There are three districts up for re-election in the City of Tulare; Areas 1, 3, and 5. Area 2 is uncontested. Marista Castellanoz was appointed in 2014 and is now running unopposed.

As a former candidate for Tulare County City Council, Strawn predicts that in the race for Area 1, between incumbent Shea Gowin and Service Employee International Union Representative Jose Sigala, the seat will easily be won by Sigala. He predicts that Sigala will win 60% of the vote to Gowin’s 40%. He said that she has not been campaigning as much as she should have while Sigala has been going door to door, actually walking his district twice.

In Area 3, between incumbent Carlton Jones and Philip Smith, Strawn predicts Jones will pull off the win also by a 60/40 split. He said that Smith vowed to wear out two pairs of shoes campaigning but that he hasn’t seen it.

In Area 5 there is a three-way race between incumbent Craig Vejvoda, Suzanna Aguilera-Marrero, or “Sam,” and Greg Nunley. Margee Fallert dropped out of the race because of schedule conflicts between campaigning and her senior in high school. Sam has also had family obligations that have taken her off the campaign trail, leaving the race between Vejvoda and Nunley.

Strawn believes it will be a close race but that Vejvoda will win over Nunley by two points.

In the Visalia City Council District Area 1 race he predicts that Adam Peck will blow Tulare County Supervisor Phil Cox out of the water.

Saving the best for last, Strawn predicts that Kevin Northcraft will beat out Incumbent Sherrie Bell for Tulare Local Health Care District 4, but that Michael Jamaica will lose to incumbent Laura Gadke in district 2.

“I would love Mike to prove me wrong, but he is not a politician.”

14 thoughts on “Republican Prognosticator Predicts a Trump Win

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  1. Why would you give column space to someone like Strawn? He is nothing but a “Walter Mitty” character of little actual accomplishment who is a horrible son. His accomplishments add up to nothing, and his illegal activities I won’t mention out of respect to his family.

    • We did not give him column space–this is only online. We thought people would appreciate a point of view different from our own, and he was willing to go through the whole slate.

    • Greetings Mr. Roberts!
      I couldn’t help but notice your comment, let me assure you that Mr. Strawn is not the person you make him out to be. As Student Senate President at College of the Sequoias I work with Mr. Strawn to ensure that our students voices are being heard by administration. As you may or may not be aware, Mr. Strawn was recently elected as Student Body Ambassador. As Ambassador, he works tirelessly to improve the lives of students, not only here at College of the Sequoias but every community college in California. Let me give you an example of one of his accomplishments. He advocated for a bill called AB 1995, which allows homeless students to use the showers in community colleges. That bill was recently passed by Governor Jerry Brown. He informed the COS Student Body about this bill and worked day and night trying to get it passed. Not only that Mr. Strawn is a wonderful friend, no doubt about it. Whenever I need help with parliamentary procedures Mr. Strawn is there to mentor me. Whenever a student has an issue or concern Mr. Strawn is always there to listen attentively. He is a wonderful Ambassador and I am proud to call him my friend. As for the “illegal activities” comment I’m positive that as false. I keep the Executive Board members in check and Mr. Strawn has done nothing illegal under my supervision or the supervision of the other board members. If he has, he would have been stripped of his position by now but I have heard nothing but good comments about him not only from administration but also from students attending other community colleges.

    • Mr. Roberts,
      A personal attack post such as this coming from a former advertising manager is truly a disgrace… you give journalism a bad name.
      My sincere apologies that you feel strongly enough about someone’s personal choices (good or bad) to take time out of your day to slander and attack them. I am sorry that the only conclusion you were able to achieve was that he is a “bad son”. I am sorry that you say you “respect” his family, yet do not exemplify this behavior. One of the best parts of technology advancement is being able to expose different people to different points of views and ideas all over the world. I would have been less disappointed had I seen an intelligent comment from your behalf discussing the actual article.

  2. I take exception with the comments made about Mr. Strawn. I’ve found him to be a dedicated, hardworking, and deeply committed individual. He is what many of us should aspire to be. He firmly holds to his principles but doesn’t bludgeon others with them. He’s a leader through and through.

  3. I’ve known Cheyne for quite a while now and have worked with him before.
    He is a person of good character and his opinion on the political climate is valuable to the 13 community college representatives who elected him for the SSCCC Region V Director of legislative affairs position. He is also currently serving as Vice Chair of Legislative Affairs committee at SSCCC representing 2.3 million students across the state, He has worked tirelessly for some time now and is a great asset. It should be noted that he was unanimously elected for his region seat.
    For anyone to question the value of his opinion and political insight suggest they do not know him well. Good job Cheyne!

  4. Mr Roberts,
    First off, I have known Cheyenne since Inwas in junior high, the better of the last 20 years. I can say as to his character, he had nothing but positive things to say then and since that empowered female youth like myself to hold ourselves to higher standards than the typicalyouth males of those times. He has high standards and moral values. He cares deeply about bettering the society we live in as a whole and has actively worked to do so, see above comments. You sir are exhibiting standard troll behavior where he has tried to give a fair representation and assessment of our current political climate that I assure you is not just well-thought or wishes. He has given his opinion in what I can see is an opinion piece. You have done the same… the difference your words are slanderous and hate monger if speech that is to try and cut his character. (Typical media tactic no?) so I ask you sir, do you realize that Cheyenne would be the first to defend your right to freedom of speech or press And disagree respectfully? Read a book, read Wikileaks, goodness read BBC and maybe invest in an education of our current devastating circumstances. Then praise God that such a kind hearted, caring man would rather be educated than troll on valley web pages. Also, if you think his threats of illegal activity intrigue the educated readers of this, think again. I have yet to run across a man who didn’t look me in the eye and say that they never go 5 over the speed limit. I assure you whatever his activities you claim to think you know anything of, which is slander without proof, thereof, are NOTHING compared to the Clinton Crime family. So give it a rest and go crawl back under that bridge you came from.

  5. Mr. Roberts

    I was dissapointed to see your comments, I don’t believe you could possiblly know Cheyne. You say that out of respect for his family you would not say what illegal activies were. I guess if a parking ticket is a crisis of charter, then you live in a really narrow life.
    As for him being a bad son, I know his mother and count her as a good friend. I know that she is extremely proud of the fine young man that he is. He has stood by her in her times of trial and need.
    I have also had the good fortune to have worked along side of Cheyne, during which I found him to be a upstanding young man always ready to help out in anyway possible.

  6. To the esteemed Mr Roberts,
    I am utterly perplexed in my attempts to rationalize why some one as syndicated a political journalist like yourself finds themselves immersed into some ones predictions for the political races on the highly factual forum of Facebook. Indeed, Mr Roberts, is it even more mind boggling that some one as presteen as yourself would even bother attacking such common folk like Cheyne strawn, whose feeble quest in life is to help students achieve their own success and true potentials. So I suppose I’m thankful for your intuition and you’re guidance as it is much appreciated in times like these which find themselves devoid of all intellectual capacity for basic thought. And if nothing else, at least you’ve pointed to the contrary that you aren’t a bitter old man who slanders and seeks to tarnish the reputations of others with out producing a single shred of concrete evidence to support his notions of corruption. No, you are the core of what makes our society great in the sense that empty claims with no substance or support is all it should take to take somebody down. Thank you, sir.

  7. Mr Roberts
    I will address you as a Mother, not a friend to your wife.
    I adore my son, where do you get saying the he is a “horrible son” that is slander Mr Roberts and I want a retraction. When I had my stroke he was with me day and night when he wasn’t in school. The others times he has been driving me to Dr visits. He always has time for his mother. You also said he has done illegal activites you are wrong and another slander. You don’t know Cheyne, you think you do because of my association with your wife. Well I think you are a horrible husband and that is not slander. You better not say anymore or I will go on and say why I don’t like you.
    I say from reading all these letters you owe Cheyne an apology. He just said how he felt about the election if that isn’t your views oh well. Cheyne is very knowledgeable in politics and he is always has a ready answer. If you don’t read it. Keep to yourself or don’t read it. I love my son. He has made me proud.

  8. This is one time I should have kept my mouth “shut”! As to slander, no I expressed my personal opinion. I have a different experience of what Cheyne is.

  9. Your personal opinion of Cheyene was crude, I believe unfounded and certainly unnecessary. I have known Cheyene for many years and I have never heard of him doing anything that could be identified as an illegal activity. I have known his mom since junior high and she is going to be surprised to hear she has a terrible son.

  10. I would like to thank wholeheartedly the voters of District 1 for their faith in me and my vision for the district.

    I was humbled by the overwhelming support and I look forward to getting to work after I get sworn in on December 6th.

    Council Member Elect
    Tulare City Council, District 1

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