Republican pundit and political animal Cheyne Strawn of Tulare released his election predictions today on the eve of the Presidential election. Though some predictions match those of the Valley Voice‘s Political Fix column, he gives a “young guns Republican” view of what is in store for the nation and Tulare County on Tuesday.
His most daring prediction is with the presidential race. While Political Fix wrote that Hilary Clinton should start measuring for new drapes, Strawn is predicting that Donald Trump will eke out a win with exactly 270 electoral votes.
Strawn maps a path to victory for Trump by winning swing states New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio and the one congressional district in Maine. He also predicts that Trump will win Nevada, Florida and all of the Southern States except Virginia. Strawn predicted that Trump will lose swing states New Mexico and Colorado.
In terms of Congress, Strawn predicted that the House and Senate would keep their Republican majority. He predicted that the Senate would end Tuesday evening with 49 Democratic and 51 Republican held seats.
California Congressional District 21 candidate Emilio Huerta is seen by some, said Strawn, as a rising star, but not high enough to catch incumbent David Valadao. He doesn’t see Huerta as having the chops of former candidate Amanda Renteria, who lost by 16 points. But he does believe that this is the year of the Latino and that Huerta might get a boost. Strawn’s predicts Valadao to win by 15 or less points.
“Don’t count Huerta out,” said Strawn, who thinks that Huerta has a fighting chance to beat State Senator Andy Vidak in 2018 if he so chooses to run.
For Congressional District 22, Strawn predicts that incumbent Devin Nunes will win his usual 63% of the vote.
Democrats might win a supermajority in the California State Assembly and Senate. According to Strawn, the California State Senate only has to lose one seat to the Democrats and two seats in the Assembly to gain a supermajority. He predicts that both houses will have a Democratic supermajority after Tuesday’s election.
Strawn has witnessed Tulare County Supervisor candidate for District 1 Dennis Smith out campaigning and said that he has run a successful grassroots campaign. Smith will also be receiving the Tea Party vote. Strawn predicts an easy win for Smith over Strathmore resident Kuyler Crocker.
There are three districts up for re-election in the City of Tulare; Areas 1, 3, and 5. Area 2 is uncontested. Marista Castellanoz was appointed in 2014 and is now running unopposed.
As a former candidate for Tulare County City Council, Strawn predicts that in the race for Area 1, between incumbent Shea Gowin and Service Employee International Union Representative Jose Sigala, the seat will easily be won by Sigala. He predicts that Sigala will win 60% of the vote to Gowin’s 40%. He said that she has not been campaigning as much as she should have while Sigala has been going door to door, actually walking his district twice.
In Area 3, between incumbent Carlton Jones and Philip Smith, Strawn predicts Jones will pull off the win also by a 60/40 split. He said that Smith vowed to wear out two pairs of shoes campaigning but that he hasn’t seen it.
In Area 5 there is a three-way race between incumbent Craig Vejvoda, Suzanna Aguilera-Marrero, or “Sam,” and Greg Nunley. Margee Fallert dropped out of the race because of schedule conflicts between campaigning and her senior in high school. Sam has also had family obligations that have taken her off the campaign trail, leaving the race between Vejvoda and Nunley.
Strawn believes it will be a close race but that Vejvoda will win over Nunley by two points.
In the Visalia City Council District Area 1 race he predicts that Adam Peck will blow Tulare County Supervisor Phil Cox out of the water.
Saving the best for last, Strawn predicts that Kevin Northcraft will beat out Incumbent Sherrie Bell for Tulare Local Health Care District 4, but that Michael Jamaica will lose to incumbent Laura Gadke in district 2.
“I would love Mike to prove me wrong, but he is not a politician.”