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Report: Low surface water supply to Westlands costs thousands of jobs, billions in economic activity

Today, Westlands Water District released its 2025 Economic Impact Report, which provides a comprehensive analysis of the District’s economic contributions using the most recent available data from 2022. While the report confirms that Westlands continues to be a foundational economic force in the San Joaquin Valley and statewide-supporting thousands of jobs, driving billions in economic activity, and anchoring a significant share of California’s and the nation’s agricultural production, it highlights the stark contrast between when water supply is reasonably available and when it is not.

This report serves as a follow-up to Westlands’ 2022 Economic Impact Report, which evaluated 2019 economic data, allowing for a clear comparison of how water availability and market conditions have shaped the region’s economy over time. In 2019 Westlands received a 75 percent surface water allocation and the year before it received a 50 percent allocation, while in 2022 the allocation was zero percent coming from a zero percent year prior. The message in this report is clear: the difference between having water and not having water is the difference between a thriving Valley and a struggling one.

Conducted by Dr. Michael Shires, former professor and Vice Dean at the Pepperdine School of Public Policy and nationally recognized economist specializing in regional economic development and public finance, and Dr. Mathew Jendian sociology professor and Founding Director of The Humanics Program in Philanthropic and Community-based Leadership, the report highlights the vital role Westlands-supported agriculture plays in sustaining local businesses, strengthening rural communities, and supporting California’s national leadership in food production.

“The numbers make one thing clear: Water to Westlands growers fuel our regional economy,” said Allison Febbo, General Manager of Westlands Water District. “Thousands of families, small businesses, and essential public services depend on the economic activity generated by agriculture in our District. This report reaffirms how central reliable water supplies are to keeping our communities strong and healthy.”

Westlands’ Economic Footprint

While the District remains a major economic driver, the report finds that unreliable and inadequate water supplies significantly reduced the region’s full economic potential from 2019 to 2022.

In 2019, with a 75% water allocation, Westlands agriculture powered over 4.7 billion in economic activity, supported over 35,000 jobs, and generated robust tax revenues of over $705.5 billion to support community services.

By 2022, after two consecutive years of zero federal water allocation:

The region’s total economic activity had dropped by 25%—a loss of $1.2 billion.
Nearly 7,500 jobs vanished—enough to have put a fifth of Fresno County’s unemployed back to work.
Crop production value fell 28%, and secondary ag businesses lost 20%—meaning .
Local government tax revenues shrank by $96 million (13.7%), slashing funds for schools, roads, and public safety.

Restoring fallowed acres since 2019 could have meant $202.2 million more in fruit and nut production from Westlands growers in 2024, almost offsetting the amount of imports.

The report also includes in-depth analysis on the relationship between declining surface water supplies and incidence of Valley Fever and bird strikes at Lemoore Naval Air Station. Both public health and safety concerns are shown to be closely correlated with increased land fallowing, which results from a shortage of surface water for irrigation. These findings underscore significant implications for public health, the local economy, and national security.

“As I spoke with growers, workers, and families across Westlands, their stories brought the numbers to life,” said Dr. Mathew Jendian, co-author of the report. “Behind every lost job or fallowed field is a family facing uncertainty, a small business struggling to stay open, or a community worried about its future. Addressing water reliability isn’t just an economic issue—it’s about protecting the hopes and well-being of real people who call this region home.”

“These findings highlight both the resilience of our growers and the real costs of uncertainty,” said Dr. Shires, co author of the report. “Westlands agriculture remains a powerful economic driver. But when water supplies fall short, the impact is immediate and felt across every sector, from farmworkers to truck drivers to local schools and businesses.”

This is not a challenge we can afford to ignore. Surface water availability remains a critical challenge compounded by pressures brought forth by aging infrastructure and compliance with the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act. In Westlands, this requires reducing groundwater use from 603,000 acre-feet in 2022 to 305,000 acre-feet by 2030, limiting growers’ ability to offset surface shortages during low allocations. Without action, our communities risk deeper job losses, shrinking local economies, and greater threats to public health and safety.

Read the full report here.

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