A new Public Policy Polling survey of voters in California’s 22nd Congressional District finds that Dr. Jasmeet Bains is the strongest candidate to defeat David Valadao and deliver real representation for the Central Valley.
With more than a year until the 2026 general election, Bains is in dead heat against Valadao, tied at 42% each. But when voters learn more about Bains’ record of service, she pulls ahead, leading Valadao 45% to 40%. No other Democrat in the race broke 40% support among Central Valley voters.
Bains’ Record Breaks Through
A majority of voters (52%) — including nearly one-third (31%) who find it very convincing — say they are drawn to Bains’ record of public service:
- Serving on the frontlines of California’s wildfires and the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Tackling the fentanyl crisis and strengthening public health in the State Assembly.
- Fighting to lower costs and raise wages for working families.
Valadao Underwater
Valadao is deeply underwater with voters. His approval rating sits at -14, and he trails Bains by 2 points in a general election matchup if the race were held today.
Nearly half of voters (46%) say they have serious concerns about Valadao’s vote to gut Medicaid — a decision that puts coverage for more than 65,000 district residents at risk, the most of any Republican-held seat in the nation. His choice to cut nearly $1 trillion from Medicaid to fund tax breaks for billionaires has left him deeply vulnerable.
Key Coalition Strength
Bains’ path to victory is powered by her strength with Hispanic and Latino voters, a cornerstone of the Central Valley electorate. She begins with a 5-point lead (44–39) in the initial ballot and expands that advantage to 11 points (48–37) once voters learn more about her. Valadao’s approval rating among Hispanic and Latino voters is a staggering -21.
Bottom Line
The poll shows CA-22 is ready for change. Dr. Jasmeet Bains’ record of service and commitment to tackling the affordability crisis resonate deeply with voters and make her the clear choice in this race, while David Valadao’s toxic record on health care leaves him increasingly unelectable.